A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
